The Cold War NATO Warsaw 195 1982 1982 USAvs.USSR Free World" vs. "The Iron Curtain" "Free World"vS. "The Iron Curtain" Capitalism vs. Communism
UNI-POLAR WORLD ORDER post 1991 hegemonic stability theory USA became "hyper power" perestroika USA gloating over "winning the cold . USA the global hegemon . Decline of Russia- glasnost and war" Francis Fukuyama- "end of history"
MULTI-POLAR WORLD ORDER be states, can be MNC's etc. also Why change from Un . A minimum of three actors- need not . Why change from Uni-polar to Multi -polar to M Polar . USA's mistakes- excessive use of hard power, unilateral invasions (Ira ) . Globalisation and increased role of MNC's, TNC's etc. G8 Growth of revisionist power -China . Growth of revisionist power - China
EMERGING WORLD ORDER Decline of the West and Rise of the Rest Rise of BRICS countr ASEAN . Rise of BRICS countries, SE Asian economies, Learning from the mistakes of USA in unipolar phase China has started giving more humane touch to its policies outside its territory e.g. OROB, AlIB etc.
EMERGING WORLD ORDER . Regionalisation of World Politics - APEC, TPP, NAFTA, . Dilution of sovereignty of nations because of rise of SAARC, ASEAN, EU non state actors Asymmetric warfare - threats of terrorist organisations (ISIS) Claim of "clash of civilisations" - Samuel P Huntington
EMERGING ECONOMIES- INDIA, SE ASIA, ASEAN etc. US ALLIANCES- EU, JAPAN, USA, JAPAN, AUSTRIALIA india and power equations RUSSIA+ CHINA ALLIANCE CAR 3 POWER BLOCS CAN BE SEEN 1. US ALLIANCE 2. CHINA-RUSSIA AXIS 3. EMERGING ECONOMIES
US ALLIANCE US ALLIANCE out Helpful unifying factors of ethnicity OLDESTSTRATEGIC AND MILITARY ALLIANCE USA- JAPAN- AUS CANADA- EU etc. Japan economic reasons : Strengths TECH AND KNOW SUPER POWERS SOFT POWER- POWER OF ATTRACTION eg. Media, Lifestyle, Democracy, Human rights, Hollywood etc.
US ALLIANCE Decline- Economic EU etc Demography- Japan ageing excessive use of hard power fear of USA's hegemony even among it's allies, decreased capacity of USA to protect outside its territory- Japan shedding pacifism : Weakness Weakness B O Internal politics
US ALLIANCE Biggest market, growing middle class, consumerism, urbanisation etc. WHY THEY NEED INDIA Geo-strategic position- between Pacific and Africa Demographic advantage, knowledge base
US ALLIANCE Russia- China emerging axis Revisionist power China Great game 2 in Afghanistarn Terrorism, refugee influx etc. Threats
CHINA-RUSSIA AXIS Mutual interests clash in Central Asian region - Russia traditional power and China "middle kingdom", role in Afghanistan etc. o ThreatsIssues Threats lssues between them-SIberia issue, border issue Russia wants to be trated as equal partner but China has a tendency to dominate
US ALLIANCE strong central leaders, human rights, democracy, enormous amount of "Power of attraction" - soft power i.e. media BBC, NYT, guardian, Hollywood, lifestyle-culture etc. *New York as finance capital, financial control over a vast areas- US dollar global currency regime (Renminbi in SDR angle), control over IMF, World Bank, Control over think tanks, rating agencies - S&P, Fitch. influences on other countries through MNCs - defend each other's interests in other parts of the world
CHINA-RUSSIA AXIS 1. Emerging axis 2. Not much commonalities 3. "Necessity" makes them come closer - not based on common values, Deep mutual suspicion still exists 4. Together they can counter US alliance but not alone 5. Issues btw them 1. Siberia issue 2. Trade imbalance issue 3. Border issue
CHINA-RUSSIA AXIS-WEAKNESS "an uneasy friendship'" 1. Lacks soft power- Western media- demonises Vladimir Putin etc. (Syrian crisis angle, Why USA and alliance ineffective etc.) 2. Hence developing its own soft power sources - media houses, own version of Google, FB Facebook, Twitter - "Great firewall of China." 3. Both have interests in central Asia - Russia traditional major power, China's growing influence - hence Vladimir Putin's East Asia pivot, India as counterweight to China, India's entry into SCO, China promoting Pakistan as counterweight to India
CHINA-RUSSIA WEAKNESS 4. There is "shadowboxing "going on(make a show of tackling a problem opponent while avoiding any direct engagement.)
CHINA-RUSSIA AXIS-SHORT TERM COMMONALITIES Short-term commonalities Energy producer Russia, China consumer recent examples: Altai gas pipelines, Power of Siberia pipeline $400 billion deal operational by 2018 China modernising its military to counter Asia pivot of USA - Russia supplying Vladimir Putin's trying to gain lost influence(EEU etc.), China wants to establish "Middle Kingdom"
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