EMERGING ECONOMIES- INDIA, SE ASIA, ASEAN etc. US ALLIANCES- EU, JAPAN, USA, JAPAN, AUSTRIALIA india and power equations RUSSIA+ CHINA ALLIANCE CAR 3 POWER BLOCS CAN BE SEEN 1. US ALLIANCE 2. CHINA-RUSSIA AXIS 3. EMERGING ECONOMIES
US ALLIANCE US ALLIANCE out Helpful unifying factors of ethnicity OLDESTSTRATEGIC AND MILITARY ALLIANCE USA- JAPAN- AUS CANADA- EU etc. Japan economic reasons : Strengths TECH AND KNOW SUPER POWERS SOFT POWER- POWER OF ATTRACTION eg. Media, Lifestyle, Democracy, Human rights, Hollywood etc.
US ALLIANCE Decline- Economic EU etc Demography- Japan ageing excessive use of hard power fear of USA's hegemony even among it's allies, decreased capacity of USA to protect outside its territory- Japan shedding pacifism : Weakness Weakness B O Internal politics
US ALLIANCE Biggest market, growing middle class, consumerism, urbanisation etc. WHY THEY NEED INDIA Geo-strategic position- between Pacific and Africa Demographic advantage, knowledge base
US ALLIANCE Russia- China emerging axis Revisionist power China Great game 2 in Afghanistarn Terrorism, refugee influx etc. Threats
CHINA-RUSSIA AXIS CHINA- COUNTER USA NECESSITY RUSSIA- UKRAINE CRISIS ISOLATION Strengths TOGETHER CAN COUNTER US ALLIANCE BUT NOT ALONE IDEOLOGICAL ORIENTATION CONVERGENCE
CHINA-RUSSIA AXIS Harmful NO COMMONALITIES BUT NECESSITIES DEEP MUTUAL SUSPICION EXISTS Weakness LACKS SOFT POWER AS COMPARED TO US ALLAINCE hence MSR by China etc., GREAT FIREWALL Shadowboxing going on
CHINA-RUSSIA AXIS Short term commonalities- Russia (energy producer) China (consumer) eg. Pow Opportunities Opportunities China (consumer) eg. Power of Siberia Pipeline Defence expansion of CHina
CHINA-RUSSIA AXIS Mutual interests clash in Central Asian region - Russia traditional power and China "middle kingdom", role in Afghanistan etc. o ThreatsIssues Threats lssues between them-SIberia issue, border issue Russia wants to be trated as equal partner but China has a tendency to dominate
US ALLIANCE oldest and backed by strategic and military alliances. *Strongest alliance because-same race, same language, same religion- "Unifying factor" is a lot of commonalities between US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand. Technology and knowledge powers.
CHINA-RUSSIA WEAKNESS 4. There is "shadowboxing "going on(make a show of tackling a problem opponent while avoiding any direct engagement.)
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR INDIA 1. "India is like a rich fianc e. "A beautiful fianc e will have many suitors. Just be careful no one promises marriage and then deceives."- Russian Ambassador to India, Alexander M Kadakin. 2. India is in an advantageous positions - "swing power concept" 3. It is wooed by many countries. It's presence in any block shifts the balance of power.
WHAT SHOULD INDIA DO? 1. make sure all our doors are open-> "MULTIPLE ALIGNMENTS" 2. we are not a part of any "containment" policy, rather we believe in " hedging against unwanted assertions" 3. we have a dual approach- "cooperate and compete." 4. One thumb rule of Diplomacy- "protect and further national 1) interestshumeb lule of Diploacy protect interests" - realism and pragmatism. 5. India's foreign policy should lead to our socio economic development.
EURASIAN CENTURY Emerging economies 1. Want global peace and stability 2. Multipolar world 3. UNSC reforms, IMF, WB reforms, Dohadevelopment talks, CBDR in Climate change 4. Weaknesses No commonalities. Competitors lack of interdependence-hardly any trade or people to people contact, absence of strong leaders.
What does India want? India hopes to be a leader of this group because of its traaitional role in NAM . India Africa summit - Bridge this out between north and south Multiple alignments and close relations with every great power in ultiple alianments and close relations with every great power in emerging world order Proactive role in BASIC, NAM, BRICS, G77 etc.
NEXT LESSON on 6 Jan, 2016 India's foreign policy- continuity and change Please give your feedback in the comments below . The slides will be available for download. Spread the word and have a wonderful evening
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