Analysing Census Data On Populations By State

In 2011, the 7th Census of independent India was conducted in all the states and union territories. The Census conducted in 2011 collected data that provided information about important aspects such as total population by state, literacy rate, sex ratio, rural and urban population, and others. 

POPULATION OF INDIA

The population of India is 1,210,193,422, according to the Census of 2011. Compared to the population in 2001, it has increased by 181 million. The population of India is equal to the total population of Japan, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Indonesia, Brazil, and the U.S.A. 

POPULATION GROWTH IN STATES AND UNION TERRITORIES

During the decade 2001-2011, the population growth rates in most states and union territories have decreased compared to the earlier decade 1991-2001. The growth rates of the most populous states such as UP, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh have declined from 2001-to 2011. The population by state data of the Census 2011 indicates that the decline in the population is the lowest in Andhra Pradesh. 

EAG STATES AND NON-EAG STATES

The growth rate of these eight states, namely Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Orissa, and Chhattisgarh, is referred to as Empowered Action Group (EAG) States. The analysis of population by state since 1951 shows that the EAG States account for about 43-46% of the total population of India.  

GROWTH PATTERNS IN THE EAG AND NON-EAG STATES

In the two decades 195-1971, the population growth in EAG, non-EAG States, and the Union Territories was continuous, and non-EAG States and the Union Territories had more growth than the EAG States. Since 1971, the growth rate in the non-EAG States and the Union Territories declined due to the decline in the fertility rates. There was stagnation in the growth rate in the EAG States during the period 1971-1991, and during the period 2001-2011, the growth rate of the EAG States showed a downward trend. After decades of stagnation in population growth, the EAG States showed a significant decline in the population growth rate in the Census 2011. 

SOME IMPORTANT FINDINGS OF THE CENSUS 2011

• Uttar Pradesh is the most populous state, followed by Maharashtra, Bihar, West Bengal, and Andhra Pradesh. 
• Lakshadweep is the least populous Union Territory and  Delhi is the highest populated Union territory.
• The least-populous state in Sikkim.
• The highest urban population is in Maharashtra, and the lowest is in Lakshadweep Union Territory.
• The Highest rural population is in Uttar Pradesh. 

SOME PROJECTIONS: 2011-2036

• India’s population growth rate is expected to decline in the decade 2021-2031 to 8.4%. As per the projections, the population of India will be more than China by the end of 2031. 
• Uttar Pradesh will witness around a 30% increase in the population by 2036. The projection of population by state shows that around 54% of growth will take place in the states of Bihar, West Bengal, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh during the period 2011-2036.
• The states of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Telangana, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu will show only 9% growth in population from 2011-to 2036. 
• If the current trend of fertility rate persists, then the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in India is expected to decline to 1.73 compared to the current rate of 3.5.
• The female population is expected to increase compared to the male population from 2011-to 2036, thus increasing the sex ratio to 952 females per 1000 males.  

INCREASE IN THE URBAN POPULATION

The Urban population in India is projected to increase at a growth rate of 57% by 2036. The rural population is projected to decrease from 69% to 61%. Delhi, the current state with the highest urban population, is expected to maintain its urban population growth in the coming years. Kerala has witnessed a massive shift of the rural population into urban areas. It is projected that Kerala will have around 92% urban population by 2036. 

INTERSTATE MIGRATION: A DECIDING FACTOR 

WHAT IS MIGRATION?

When people move from one place to another (state, city, or country), it is defined as migration. The number of people migrating into a state from other states of the same country is inward migration. The number of people migrating out of a state to other states of the same country is called outward migration. 

STATES WITH INWARD AND OUTWARD MIGRATION

Interstate migration is a common state of affairs in India. People migrate to cities and high-income states to get employment, education, and better living conditions. At times marriage and healthcare are also the reasons for migration. The most populated state of India, Uttar Pradesh, and other states such as Bihar, West Bengal, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan, are the states where outward migration happens. The census data on population by state indicates that states like Maharashtra, Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat, Karnataka, and Himachal Pradesh experience inward migration. 

CONCLUSION

Variables of the population are determinants and consequences of the national development process. Considering the global scenario, India has yet to achieve a lot in per capita GDP and the Human Development Index. The detailed analysis of population by state in India helps policymakers address certain issues specific to particular states. The analysis of census data also indicates how social and economic growth depends on the migration factor. The Census 2011 data indicates that the growth rate of the Indian population is tapering off.