What If Spain Broke Up

Catalonia has discussed independence from Spain since the founding of Estat Català, a political movement founded in 1922, and throughout Franco’s 36-year dictatorship; however, the recent resurgence of the pro-secession movement is primarily due to Spain’s economic woes, a 2010 constitutional court decision to lessen Catalonia’s sovereignty, and distrust of Madrid or the centralised Spanish government. Questions about the economic repercussions of a Catalonia-Spain separation have surfaced amid talks about Scotland’s relationship with the European Union following Brexit.

Is Spain Regarding Break Up?

When Catalan voters go to the polls on October 1, much more than the region’s freedom is at stake.

The vote will serve as Spain’s future sounding board in many ways. However, the division of the European Union into its north and south, east and west, also serves as a test of its long-term survival. With complaints dating back to Catalonia’s loss of freedom during the War of Spanish Succession, the Catalan independence referendum is, in some ways, a very Spanish issue (1701-1714). The Catalans lost more than just their political independence to Hitlerian National Socialism when the combined French and Spanish troops overran Barcelona. They lost some of their culture and language under Francisco Franco’s brutal, protracted rule, which lasted from 1939 to 1975.

The current freedom debate started in 2010 when the right-wing People’s Party asked the Spanish Constitutional Court to invalidate an autonomy agreement reached by the Spanish and Catalan parliaments. Since then, Catalans have voted for a government that supports independence and narrowly lost a referendum in 2014 calling for the establishment of a free republic. On October 1, the vote will be re-examined. But the majority of Europe is anxiously awaiting the results of the next election, in part because of political unrest in nations like Scotland, Belgium, and Italy and part because of other EU economic policies, including regressive taxation, austerity measures, and privatisation.

Spain’s Struggle

Few nations were more severely affected by the 2008 economic crisis than Spain. The Spanish economy was expanding at the time, but it was mostly financed by real estate speculation supported by German, Austrian, French, British, and American banks. Five hundred per cent more money has been spent on real estate. Such balloons inevitably deflate, and this one did so violently, prompting Spain to accept a handout from the EU’s “troika”—the European Commission, the European Bank, and the World Bank.

Hysteresis

A troika-enforced policy of harsh austerity, significant tax increases, and what one observer labelled “sado-monetarism” were the price of the rescue, the majority of which went to pay off the banks whose speculation had first fueled the boom. The results were terrible. As a result of the financial crisis, unemployment rose to 27%, reaching over 50%. A total of 400,000 individuals were compelled to leave.

The left-wing Podemos Party, currently the third-largest in the Spanish parliament and closely vying with the centre-left Socialist Party, was born due to austerity measures, which also caused considerable suffering. Most of Spain’s major cities, including Madrid, Valencia, and Barcelona, are led by mayors who are supporters of Podemos.

“Labour changes” that make it simpler to fire workers and replace full-time employees with temporary ones also contribute to the “recovery” . The change has been from solid full-time employees with labour agreements to temporary workers with little protection. While this may lower the price of goods, it also depletes the workforce’s resources.

The technique has become so widespread that economists now refer to it as hysteresis, a term from physics. A phenomenon known as hysteresis occurs when a force permanently changes the object to which it is applied.

Catalonia: All Eyes

Recent elections in Europe and the United States have shown how rightists utilise xenophobia and racism to incite anti-immigrant sentiment among these underprivileged populations and economic sectors.

Racism was blamed for Britain’s decision to leave the EU and for a good cause. But even while Brexit was influenced by anti-immigrant sentiment, such an explanation greatly simplifies what transpired. The Brexit vote, in large part, was not so much xenophobic as it was a rejection of the major political parties, who abandoned entire regions of the nation.

Conclusion

The whispers were flying thick and fast in the hours before Catalonia’s president mounted the platform. Nobody knew if Carles Puigdemont would proclaim unilateral independence for the area of Spain he represents or whether he would sue for talks with Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s administration in Madrid. However, when the president finally spoke on October 10, he attempted to bridge the gap. “The people have decided that Catalonia should become an independent state,” he added before requesting parliament to “delay the repercussions of the independence proclamation for the next several weeks while we engage in conversation.”