COURSE: INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING LESSON: QUESTION ON FORECASTING
ABOUT ME Graduated from NIT Nagpur in 2008 Cleared Engineering Services Examination (ESE-UPSC) Exam Got the offer letter from most of the Maharatna and Navratna Companies Cleared GATE Exam Rate, Review, Recommend, Share Follow me on Unacademy at: https://unacademv.in/user/harshit aggarwal
QUESTION The demand for a newly introduced luxury car has been shown below. The experts forecasted a sale of 100 cars for the month of march with a smoothing constant -0.15. Find the forecast for the month ofAugust. Also calculate MAD, MSE, MAPE, BIAS and Tracking Signal Month March April May June July August Demand 150 200 100 50 150 Forecast 100
SOLUTION Month Demand (D) Forecast (F) Error (e) March 150 April 200 May June 50 July 150 August 2ci", (Sc) + (42.9% (-21.375 + 100 07.5 121.375 118.16 107.94 114.25 50 92.5 -21.375 -68.16 42.05 (-68.14) 42.os) 100 MAD = Sleil - 274,08- S48 5 5 Se = 95.01 Xlel 274.08 se2 = 13927.9-_353588 5 MAPE | .xl 5
SOLUTION 26S.3 S3.06 5 TsRSFE 4S.ol 1.73 MAD D SY.8
ECONOMETRIC OR CASUAL Here forecaster tries to establish cause and effect relation between sales and some other parameter that are related to sales. I. Correlation Analysis %-1 Correlation analysis is used in determining the degree of closeness or relationship between two variables. It is an indication of the extent to which the knowledge on one variable is useful for the prediction of other.
CORRELATION ANALYSIS Q variables and 1Sgfvenas LJhese _ and-are-tee mean weave Prespee tively
Cleared UPSC ESE twice with Rank 63 and 90 in mechanical engg. Got 99 percentile in GATE. Cracked ONGC, BHEL,ISRO, SAIL, GAIL successfully