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Course: Expected Questions Geo-Mains Paper GS- 1 Presented by Ashna Sisodia
Question 9: Write a note on the objectives and achievements of India's Monsoon Mission. (200 Words)
ts scale largely unpredicable, as st India's monsoon system is one of the most complex weather systems in the world, which makes its scale largely unpredictable, as still all the factors affecting it have not been discovered Hence, to improve the assimilation and forecasting system especially for the monsoon region, the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) has formulated a focused mission mode programme 'Monsoon Mission' on the national scale under the leadership of IITM
Its objectives are: 1. To build a working partnership between the Academic R&D Organizations and the Operational Agency to improve the monsoon forecast skill 2. To set up a state of the art dynamical modelling frame work for improving prediction skill of Seasonal and Extended range prediction system, Short and Medium range prediction system 3. To set up the infrastructure and manpower required to improve the prediction skill at all the time scales
Achievements include delivering quantifiable improvement in forecasting extreme events, such as El Nino, flood and drought years, active and dry spells of monsoon, flash floods, and monsoon depressions. It wil also predict sea surface temperature. The project uses high resolution coupled ocean atmospheric model, which gives information on both atmosphere and ocean. The ultimate goal of the mission is to develop an Indian Model which will have the capability to better simulate and predict the monsoon rainfall.
Question 10: Discuss the Monsoon Predication Model. (200 Words)
Answer: There are 2 models of Monsoon Prediction are: 1. Dynamic monsoon model 2. Ensemble model Dynamic Monsoon Model: The dynamical monsoon model works by simulating the weather on powerful computers (supercomputers) and extrapolating it over particular timeframes. This modern forecasting model is being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune. So far it has achieved only 60% accuracy in forecasting the monsoon. This method is widely used in forecasting weather over a few days. But using it to forecast the annual monsoon over 3 or 4 months has proved difficult.
Ensemble Model: Currently, IMD relies on an ensemble model for forecasting monsoon. This traditional model uses a statistical technique. It uses an average of 6 meteorological values correlated to the monsoon such as sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, and North Atlantic sea level pressure. These meteorological values are traditionally derived from century old meteorological data linked to the historical performance of the monsoon. However, this traditional approach in has failed to predict monsoon recent decades (for instance in 2002 and 2004) leading meteorologists to call for a new, modern forecasting system
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