World Population: Trends in Population Growth

Introduction

In past centuries, the world saw a dramatic change in population growth numbers. In earlier stages, the rate of population change was slow. However, in the present time, the trends in population growth have risen subsequently. Currently, the world population is 7.9 billion, and it is expected to reach 9.9 billion by the year 2050. Around 12,000 to 8,000 years ago, soon after evolution and when agricultural practises became common, the rough estimation of the size of the world population stood at 8 million approximately.

• Then, over the years in the first century A.D, the estimate of the world population stood at 300 million
• All was well until the world entered into the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. During this time, trade and population both were expanding around the world
• Then, the Industrial Revolution began in the 1750s, the world population crossed 550 million
• It was after the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century when the world population escalated rapidly
• The technological advancement that took place in the past few hundred years helped in lowering down the death rate drastically. However, later on, it resulted in an increase in the world population at an alarming rate
• If proper analysis of population growth trends is done, then, the dramatic changes that took place over the years can be noticed
• Moreover, it took a million years to attain the 1 billionth mark of Earth’s total population
• However, the world population has increased more than ten times in the last 500 years. In the 20th century itself, the population has grown up to four times which is an alarming rate
• Nonetheless, now the tables have turned significantly. The world population went to 6 billion from 5 billion in a short span of 12 years

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The Spatial Pattern of Population Change

The studies show that the growth of population is relatively less in developed countries as compared to developing countries. An inverse relationship can be seen between a country’s economic development and its population. This must also be kept in mind that the quality and quantity of the population can affect the rate of economic growth to a significant extent.

The annual population growth rate in India is said to be around 1.4 per cent. Thus, even if the annual rate of population growth is less, it doesn’t change the story.

During the past few years, the birth rate has noticeably increased in comparison to the death rate. It implies that even if the growth rate decreases in the coming years, the total population will expand remarkably.

Impact of Population Change on the World

When the world sees a dramatic increase in population change, there is a significant impact on the world’s economic development too.

1. Small increase in population change is necessary for the growth of the economy. However, nothing is good when it goes beyond the borderline. Similarly, when the population change sees a significant rise, it leads to resource depletion.
2. Resources are limited, but the number of consumers is increasing significantly. As a result, it will lead to a situation where resources will be inadequate to feed the entire population of a country.

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The Democratic Transition Theory

The democratic transition theory states that – “The population of a country changes from a ratio of high births and high deaths to a scenario of low births and low deaths because the country progresses from rural practises to urban industrialization as the literacy rate increases. “

Being popularly used, this theory helps in describing as well as predicting the future population of any country. The change is not rapid, but it occurs in various stages. The change of cycle in which a society undergoes a massive transition is called the demographic change cycle.

The three-stage model of democratic transition

There are three stages in a democratic transition cycle. They are:

1. The First Stage –

Two centuries ago, almost all the countries were at this stage of the demographic cycle. The population was illiterate, their life expectancy was low, and the technology was not at its peak. The people didn’t take measures for family planning either. 

Agriculture was a primary occupation of the people. Large families were considered as an asset.

So, this stage had high fertility and a high mortality rate. It was also because of the reason that it helped in balancing the inevitable deaths in the family.

2. The Second Stage –

In the second stage of the democratic transition theory, the fertility rate goes high, but the mortality rate decreases.

It is because there were positive changes seen in sanitation activities and the health conditions of the society also improved noticeably.

3. The Third Stage –

In the 3rd & final stage of the democratic transition, the fertility and mortality rates significantly decrease.

The population is now literate and have switched to urbanisation methods.

People are adjusting and taking measures for family planning aiding in population control.

The population at this stage is stable, or it is growing slowly.

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Population Control Measures

There are several population control measures to maintain the population. They are:

Family Planning – It is a way of preventing the birth of children. It plays a crucial role in limiting population change and improving overall women’s health.

Other Measures – Propagandas, easy accessibility to contraceptives, and tax disincentives are some population control measures that aid in setting a limit on population change.

Conclusion: 

Population growth, in conjunction with overconsumption, is a major driver of environmental concerns, such as biodiversity loss and climate change, as a result of resource-intensive human development that exceeds planetary boundaries. International policy aimed at mitigating the impact of human population growth is centred on the Sustainable Development Goals, which aim to raise global living standards while reducing society’s impact on the environment.