The Fragile State of Nuclear Disarmament

Why in the News?

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has released its yearbook highlighting some trends of the past year in international security.

• The expected rise of the global nuclear arsenal was the chief cause of concern among SIPRI experts

Key Highlights of the Yearbook

Trends in Military Spending:

• During 2012-2021, military spending as a percentage of gross domestic product has largely been stable

• Russia leads the charge in absolute numbers of nuclear inventory (5977) followed by the USA(5428)

Global Arms Imports:

• Military modernisation is seen to be a global trend

• India was the top weapons importer during the 2017-2021 period

• Other countries in the top five arms importers list include Saudi Arabia, Egypt, China, and Australia

• These five nation-states account for 38% of total global arms imports. 

Concerns flagged by the yearbook:

• It mentions the following as worrying indicators of an unstable system.

  • Low-level border clashes between India and Pakistan

  • The civil war in Afghanistan, and 

  • Armed conflict in Myanmar as some of the worrying indicators of an unstable system

• It highlighted three cause of concern trends:

  • Chinese-American rivalry

  • Involvement of state and non-state actors in multiple conflicts, and 

  • The challenge that climatic and weather hazards pose

• The Russian invasion of Ukraine has raised some serious concern because of the continuous rhetoric from the Kremlin over them not shying away from the use of nuclear weapons

• China’s recent activities surrounding the construction of 300 new nuclear missile silos have also been turning heads

• The report claimed that Iran’s military budget grew to $24.6 billion, growing for the first time in four years

General attitude among countries about existing nuclear and arms-related treaties:

• The leaders of the P5 countries (China, France, Russia, the U.K. and the U.S.) issued a joint statement affirming the belief that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought”

• This highlights collective belief that bilateral and multilateral arms control agreements and commitments were indeed important

• The nation-states are making sure to remain well within the ambit of what the treaties and agreements ask for

• The states are aware of the value of the rhetoric and the security dilemma that their actions present

  • The recent Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent NATO bids by Finland and Sweden seem to be telling events

• The year 2021 also saw the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, 2017 coming into effect

• The Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and the Missile Technology Control Regimes (MTCR) held their annual meetings despite decision making being limited due to the COVID-19 pandemic

What lies ahead?

• A strong political opposition would be needed to help keep the ruling dispensation in check

• Furthermore, the two largest nuclear weapons-holding states need to take on a more engaging role in the international arena

• Negotiation should be used by nations to reach a peaceful settlement