Daily News Analysis » March 2024 » India’s Fertility Rate Forecast by Lancet Study: 26 Mar 2024

India’s Fertility Rate Forecast by Lancet Study: 26 Mar 2024

Total fertility rate (TFR):  It refers to the total number of children born or likely to be born to a woman in her lifetime if she were subject to the prevailing rate of age-specific fertility.

Key Points of the Study:

  • India’s TFR dropped from 6.18 in 1950 to 1.91 in 2021.
  • Causes of Decline on TFR: Economic development, changing intergenerational wealth flows, increased female literacy, and women’s workforce participation have contributed to India’s declining fertility.
  • Impact: By 2050, the elderly population in India is expected to exceed 20%. This demographic shift, similar to current trends in China, poses challenges, including labor shortages and gender imbalances.
  • Suggestions: Learning from Scandinavian models, India can address these challenges through supportive measures for families, gender equity initiatives, economic policies for job creation, and reforms in social security and pensions.
  • Global Outlook: By 2050, 76% of countries are projected to have TFRs below the replacement level.

Why in News:

  • The leading medical journal Lancet has published a study that predicts that India’s fertility rate will dip to 1.29 by 2050.