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CA Foundation Exam June 2023 » CA Foundation Study Material » Statistics » Mathematical Expectation
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Mathematical Expectation

What are mathematical expectations? There are many different uses of mathematical expectation in statistics as well. In this article learn about the mathematical expectations in random variables as well.

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Mathematical expectations are somewhat of a vague concept. This concept is also known as the law of large numbers. Simply put, this states that a sum of many independent random events will be close to its expected value. In other words, if you were to roll a die over and over again, the average or expected value would be three and a half. This is because each time you roll the die, there is an equal chance for it to come up with any number from one through six.

Mathematical Expectations In Statistics

Mathematical expectations in statistics, also known as statistical expectations, is the probability that a random variable will take on a particular value. The expectation of an event’s outcome is determined by its prior probability and future outcomes. In addition to these two factors, there are also other aspects such as the mean and variance of an event.

The mathematical expectation in statistics refers to how likely it is that a given event will occur based on what has happened before and what may happen after it occurs.

For example, if you have played poker for years with only losing money each time you play then your chances of winning at poker are very low because of this history. However, if you were to start playing again tomorrow and won every game then your odds would be much better because your history has changed. The mathematical expectation, in this case, would be that you will win the next game, as it is much more likely given your recent winning streak.

Applications of Mathematical Expectations

There are many different applications of mathematical expectation such as:

  • Ranking, for example in sports. Expected value is used to rank the possible outcomes of a game before it even happens. This can also be used as an approach to valuing any asset that has multiple possible outcomes such as real estate or futures contracts.
  • Pricing and hedging financial derivatives, because they represent a random uncertainty in future cash flows that can be modeled by probability distribution functions
  • Setting up probabilities in gambling games like roulette and craps where the mathematical expectation is applied to calculate the casino’s advantage over gamblers (the house edge).

Mathematical Expectations of Random Variable

The mathematical expectations of a random variable give us a way to calculate the average value of the variable. This can help understand the behavior of the random variable and in making predictions about future values.

The mathematical expectation of a random variable is found by taking the product of all the possible values of the variable and then dividing by the number of possible values. This gives us an idea of what we can expect the average value of the random variable to be.

We can also use this information to help us understand how likely it is for a particular value to occur. The higher the mathematical expectation, the more likely it is that we will see that value come up in our data set. Conversely, if the mathematical expectation is low, then we can expect to see that value less often.

Conclusion

Mathematical expectations are one of the basic concepts that one should learn. There are many applications and uses of mathematical expectations as well.

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