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COURSE TOPIC THE HINDU EDITORIAL TIMES 8 JUNE -2018
TITLE IS THE INDIAN ECONOMY ON AN UPSWING NOW?
HEADLINE Many policy initiatives have shown a clear productivity enhancing supply-side thrust
IS THE INDIAN ECONOMY ON AN UPSWING NOW? (D.K. SRIVASTAVA IS CHIEF POLICY ADVISOR AT EY(ERNST & YOUNG) INDIA) Yes, The Indian economy has shown a strong V-shaped recovery dnn orgey b domestic growth impulses quarter from a Deok of 9% t00 trongn of 5.6% in the first quarter of 2017-8 As is widely recognised, this was due to eonetisobon and i tstory odese effscts of the goods and services tax implementation ewh Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth fell quarter after These eventually subsided and for the last three quarters, growth steadily recovered to 6.3%, 7.0% and 7.7% in the second, third and fourth quarters of 2017-18, respectively.
IS THE INDIAN ECONOMY ON AN UPSWING NOW? (D.K. SRIVASTAVA IS CHIEF POLICY ADVISOR AT EY(ERNST & YOUNG) INDIA) From the demand side, two segments which have supported growth, particularly in the fourth quarter of 2017-18, and overall investment demand. are government consumption real investment rate has also increased to The 2017-18 34.6% in the fourth quarter of .
IS THE INDIAN ECONOMY ON AN UPSWING NOW? (D.K. SRIVASTAVA IS CHIEF POLICY ADVISOR AT EY(ERNST & YOUNG) INDIA) PRODUCTIVITY FOCUS Key policy initiatives (Make in India, Start-up India) productivity The power sector further benefitted from the Ujwal DISCOM Assurance Yojana scheme. also aim at improving For real estate and banking, the regulatory framework was changed
IS THE INDIAN ECONOMY ON AN UPSWING NOW? (HIMANSHU IS A PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS AT JNU) NO premature. While growth estimates may point to an upswing, the euphoria may be . GDP growth estimates released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) suggest that the economy grew at 6.7% in 2017-18 at 2011-12 prices. This, incidentally, is the lowest growth rate during this government's four years in power. GDP growth rate has decelerated sharply from the high of 16, the first full year since the government assumed office 8.2% in 2015
IS THE INDIAN ECONOMY ON AN UPSWING NOW? HIMANSHU IS A PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS AT JNU) 45% appears more of a statistical artefact Growth in nominal GDP in agriculture . Agricultural growth in real terms at than a story of turnaround in agriculture 4.91% also happens to be the lowest growth in the fourth quarter since 2012 It is lower than the nominal growth of agricultural GDP in the fourth quarter achieved during the two drought years (2014 and 2015) But herein lies the problem of the Indian economy. It is going through a period when domestic demand especially in the rural areas has almost collapsed
IS THE INDIAN ECONOMY ON AN UPSWING NOW? (HIMANSHU IS A PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS AT JNU) Latest estimates may suggest that the worst may be over for the economy as far as the two shocks of demonetisation and the GST are concerned but it is certainly too early to celebrate the revival of economic growth.
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