World Economic Outlook

• The Ukraine War has built a humanitarian crisis in the world demanding a peaceful resolution. This has resulted in the economic damage for countries that will lead to inflation and slow down the global growth in 2022. 
• The prices of fuel and food have seen an increase hitting the vulnerable populations of low-income groups. The global growth is expected to slow down from 6.1% in 2021 to 3.1% in 2022 and 2023. 
• The IMF World Economic Outlook April 2021 survey reveals that the global growth will decline more than 3.3% over the medium term. 

World Economy Affected By The War 

• There has been an increase in the prices of commodities due to the Ukrainian war. The outlook for 2021 economy have led to inflation projections for 2022 of 5.7% in advanced economies and 8.7% in developing economies
• Multilateral efforts have been made to handle the humanitarian crisis and to prevent economic fragmentation, bring global liquidity, handle debt, deal with climate change and work towards ending the pandemic

Inflation

China’s economy faced disruptions due to the pandemic and went through a zero-tolerance policy. Property developers faced financial stress inducing a slow in the growth of economy of 0.8%. The global growth is expected to be slowed down to 3.8% in 2023. 

World Economic Outlook During The Pandemic 

The pandemic imposed unique policy changes in the world economic outlook requiring strong multilateral efforts. The IMF World Economic Outlook 2021 reports showed that the global economy continued to recover during a resurging pandemic. 

Global Recovery 

• The outlook for 2021 economy projected a growth of 6.0% in 2021 and 4.9% in 2022. During the second half of 2021 vaccine-powered recovery started to pick up the pace in the changing economy
• The world economic outlook was surrounded by high uncertainty during the global recovery phase. The evolution of the financial condition started to take place and the effectiveness of the policy support was tested to provide support to the vaccine-powered companies

Slow Growth 

• The global recovery saw a decline in its growth due to continued COVID-19 flare-ups. The policy support also saw diminishing reports in the world economic outlook
• There are a lot of downside risks involved including new virus variants, inflation, and financial stress. Countries having debt will take longer to recover from financial distress
• Change in the climate will also lead to an increase in the prices. The pandemic has also caused inequalities in the economy which can result in the rising of social tensions
• The world economic outlook suggests widened vaccination drives to face the challenges of a slowed growth. Debt sustainability needs to be enhanced and climate change needs to be tackled to diversify the economic activities

Global Growth 

• Global growth is estimated to slow down to 4.1% in 2022 due to continuous COVID-19 flare-ups and diminishing fiscal support. Investment and output in advanced economies is estimated to return to pre-pandemic trends in the coming years
• In developing economies and emerging markets the growth however is projected to remain diminished. The world economic outlook reports also show downside risks involving the global outlook
• Resurgence of the pandemic, supply disruptions, inflation, financial stress, and climate-related issues are some of the risks involved
• The policies of developing economies and emerging markets have to face the challenges of inflation and fiscal stress. These policies should be centred around market vulnerabilities to reduce inequalities and be effective in crisis preparedness

Debt Relief 

• The recession induced by the pandemic in 2020 led to an increase in the global debt. 
• Due to this several countries have initiated debt restructuring
• There are many countries facing the high risks of debt distress who would eventually require debt relief. There are several umbrella frameworks in place to coordinate debt relief for countries facing distress
• These frameworks facilitate exchange of principles between the debtor countries and creditors. They offer protracted yet substantial debt stock reductions
• G20 is one such framework which provides debt restructuring for low-income countries. They avoid the issues of debt reductions
• There is a more fragmented creditor base now due to which, future debt restructuring frameworks will face greater challenges

Global Income

• The COVID-19 pandemic has increased inequalities in the global Income. There was a decline in the income of the global economy in the past two decades which got reversed due to the pandemic
• The developing economies and emerging markets are facing weak recoveries in income inequalities. The pandemic caused loss of income and jobs among low-income population groups. This has caused income inequalities within a country in the developing economies and emerging markets
• Food price inflation and disruptions in education due to the pandemic may further increase income inequalities within a country during the long term report

Conclusion 

The world economic outlook reports a growth in the global economy of 6.1% in 2021. This growth is expected to slow down to 3.9% in 2022 and 2023. The Ukraine War is a major obstacle to global growth and stability of price. The world economic outlook is a report published twice a year by the International Monetary Fund. The report estimates global output growth, inflation, GDP growth, and consumer prices.