INDIAN EXPRESS AUGUST 2018 EDITORIAL ANALYSIS FOR UPSC CSE 2019 PRESENTED BY unacademy Dr. SWASTI SINHA
2. AN UNLOVELY TRIANGLE (AUG 6)
JCPOA Agreement: O The agreement was signed in 2014 by: Germany o UK o China o US o Russia o France o Iran The agreement was to contain the Iran's nuclear programme. O The JCPOA was endorsed by the UN in 2015.
DILEMMA FOR INDIA AT TIME OF JCPOA SIGNING: Iran is an important supplier of crude oil to India. O Chabahar Port: o The Chabahar Port Development on the south coast of Iran is currently part financed and led by an Indian consortium. o It will offer India overland access to the Central Asian market without having to cross Pakistan. o The port will offer India strategic benefits
US is a mightier economy and India's 'permanent interests' would be more severely impacted if its companies were sanctioned under the US law like: o CAATSA O CAATSA is Countering American Adversaries through Sanctions Act. It empowers the US administration to impose sanctions on companies that have an association with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
India would then have to walk a tightrope between: o Securing uninterrupted supplies of oil vis a vis Iran o Protect its strategic interests encompassing defence, trade, services and technology vis a vis America.
Recent move by US: O US decided to withdraw from the JCPOA and reimpose sanctions on Iran Demand from India: o US demanded India to reduce its imports of Iranian crude Analysis: o Current demand is not grounded in law. o It does not have the support of the international community o There is no evidence that Iran has failed to comply with the conditions of the JCPOA.
India in a better position: I India has options to divert supplies away from Iran. I India could source comparable quality crude from: o Saudi Arabia o Iraq o Kuwait o Venezuela D The switch would cost India but this increase would be affordable. l The freight rates would increase because: o India would not receive the discounts provided by Iranian tankers. o The price might rise depending on the price differential between Iranian heavy and the lighter crudes.
But: o Strait of Hormuz: l Iran can blockade the Straits of Hormuz. D Through this strait almost 22 million tonnes of oil flows annually. D A blockade even for a few days would totally disrupt the market. I This can lead to an explosion in prices. l Thus India must remain engaged with Iran o Geopolitics: l The weakening of ties between Iran and India would give China the space. 0 China has said it will not comply with the sanctions' demand. D China has not discouraged its companies from investing in Iran. l China has expressed interest in the Chabahar project. 0 Iran may well be responsive if India tacked too closely to America.
mportance GS Paper Il: International Relation:s Suggested Question: Between strategic-energy interests with Iran and flip-flopping US demands, India must find its own balance. Critically examine this statement in view of the recent US withdrawal from JCPOA.