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ECONOMIC SURVEY 2017-2018
Released By Government of India Ministry of Finance Department of Economic Affairs Economic Division January 29, 2018 Presented By Roman Saini
List of Chapters 1. State of the Economy: An Analytical Overview and Outlook for Policy 2. A New. Exciting Bird's-Eve View of the Indian Economy Through the GST 3. Investment and Saving Slowdowns and Recoveries: Cross-Country Insights for India 4. Reconciling Fiscal Federalism and Accountability: Is there a Low Equilibrium Trap 5. Is there a Late Converger Stall" in Economic Development? Can India Escape it? 6. Climate, Climate Change, and Agriculture 7. Gender and Son Meta-Preference: Is Development Itself an Antidote 8. Transforming Science and Technology in India 9 Ease of Doing Business' Next Frontier: Timely Justice
Chapter 2 1. 2. 3. A New, Exciting Bird's-Eye View of the Indian Economy Through the GST GST as an Information Repository Increased Taxpayers GST Base and its Spatial Distribution Size Distribution of Inter-firm Transaction International Trade, Inter-State trade and Economic Prosperity Trading Superstars Informality of Indian Economy 4. 5. 6. 7.
GST as an Information Repository Data from the GST can help unveil some long-elusive and basic facts about the Indian economy. Some exciting new findings include: There has been a large increase in the number of indirect taxpayers; many have voluntarily chosen to be part of the GST, especially small enterprises that buy from large enterprises; The distribution of the GST base among the states is closely linked to their Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP), allaying fears of major producing that the shift to the new system would undermine their tax collections
New data on the international exports of states suggests a strong correlation between export performance and states' standard of living; India's exports are unusual in that the largest firms account for a much smaller share than in other comparable countries; * Internal trade is about 60 percent of GDP, even greater than estimated in last year's Survey and comparing very favorably with other large countries; * India's formal sector non-farm payroll is substantially greater than currently believed. Formality defined in terms of social security provision yields an estimate of formal sector payroll of about 31 percent of the non-agricultural workforce; And formality defined in terms of being part of the GST net suggests a formal sector payroll of 53 percent.
Increased Taxpayers The GST has increased the number of unique indirect taxpayers by more than 50 percent (a substantial 3.4 million). Following are the states with the greatest number of GST registrants 1. Maharashtra, 2. UP 3. Tamil Nadu and 4. Gujarat UP and West Bengal have seen large increases in the number of tax registrants compared to the old tax regime.
GST Base and Its Spatial Distribution In the list of state wise share of GST, the top states are 1. Maharashtra (16 percent), 2. Tamil Nadu (10 percent), 3. Karnataka (9 percent), 4. Uttar Pradesh(7 percent), 5. Gujarat (6 percent) Each state's share in the GSTbase is almost perfectly correlated with its share in overall GSDP. So the biggest tax bases still seem to be in the biggest producing states. The GST tax base cannot be related to states' consumption base because the most recent data are for 2011-12 and, moreover, they suffer from significant under-reporting of consumption by richer householdswhich would significantly influence the magnitudes and their state-wise distribution.
Size Distribution of Inter-Firm Transaction All firms are placed in five categories based on their annual turnover: 1. Below-threshold, less than Rs. 20 lakhs; 2. Below-composition limit, Rs. 20-100 lakhs 3. Small and Micro enterprises (SMEs), Rs. 1-5 crore 4. Medium enterprises, Rs. 5-100 crore; and 5. Large firms above Rs. 100 crore Registered smaller firms (the first three categories) seem to be equally involved in selling to consumers (B2C,Business to Consumer) and selling to other firms (B2B,Business to Business). Medium and large firms, in contrast, have a much greater presence in B2B than B20 transactions Small B2C firms want to be part of the GST because they buy from large enterprises.
Last year Survey had estimated that India's inter-state trade in goods was between 30 and 50 percent of GDP, a relatively high number compared to other countries GST data suggests that India's internal trade in goods and services (excludes non-GST goods and services) is actually even higher: about 60 percent of GDP Data on inter-state trade: The five largest exporting states are Maharashtra, Gujarat, Haryana, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka; The five largest importing states are Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka and Gujarat The states with the largest internal trade surpluses are Gujarat, Haryana, Maharashtra, Odisha and Tamil Nadu. The correlation of per capita GSDP with international exports is stronger than with inter-state trade.
Informality Of The Indian Economy Informality or rather formality can be defined in at least two senses First, when firms are providing some kind of social security to employees. In India, government provides this for its employees, and the Employees' Provident Fund Organization (EPFO) provides it to private sector employees in respect of pensions and provident funds; and the Employees' State Insurance Corporation (ESIC) in respect of medical benefits The EPFO contribution is mandatory for industries employing greater than 20 workers, and whose monthly wage/salary is below Rs. 15,000. Above that level, contributions are voluntary. The ESIC contribution is mandatory for certain firms, employing greater than 10 workers, and for workers in these firms whose monthly wage/salary is below Rs. 21,000.