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ECONOMIC SURVEY 2017-2018
Released By Government of India Ministry of Finance Department of Economic Affairs Economic Division January 29, 2018 Presented By Roman Saini
List of Chapters 1. State of the Economy: An Analytical Overview and Outlook for Policy 2. A New.Exciting Bird's-Eye View of the 3. Investment and Saving Slowdowns and Recoveries: Cross-Country Insights for India 4. Reconciling Fiscal Federalism and Accountability: Is there a Low Equilibrium Trap 5. Is there a Late Converger Stall" in Economic Development? Can India Escape it? 6. Climate, Climate Change, and Agriculture 7. Gender and Son Meta-Preference: Is Development Itself an Antidote 8. Transforming Science and Technology in India 9 Ease of Doing Business' Next Frontier: Timely Justice ian Economy Through the GST
CHAPTER 1 1. Overview:Short Term and Medium Term State of the Economy: An Analytical Overview and Outlook for Policy 2. Recent Development 3. Outlook: 2017-18 4. Clothing Package of 2016
Recent Development The Global Outlook: Baseline and Risks The latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the IMF shows global GDP growth accelerated to around 3.6 percent in 2017 from 3.2 percent in 2016, and the forecast for 2018 has been upgraded by 0.2 percentage points to 3.2 percent. Although rebounding, global growth is still well below levels reached in the 2000s. The IMF is now forecasting that advanced country output gaps will close in 2018 for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis
As this occurs, wages would start rising, eating into profits and as inflation rises in tandem, policy makers would be forced into raising rates, deflating bond valuations and further undermining share prices. Understanding India's (Temporary) "Decoupling" Until early 2016, India's growth had been accelerating when growth in other countries was decelerating. But then the converse happened. The world economy embarked on a synchronous recovery, but India's GDP growth-and indeed a number of other indicators such as industrial production, credit, and investment decelerated "decoupling" of Indian growth from global growth Factors. It caused India to forge its unique path
For this, following factors are responsible First, India's monetary conditions decoupled from the rest of the world . The second and third factors were one-off policy actions: demonetization and GST. The fourth factor exerting a drag on the Indian economy was the TBS challenge
Outlook for 2017-18 Economic activity The CSO has forecast real GDP growth for 2017-18 at 6.5 percent. Average CPI inflation is projected to reach 3.7 percent for the year as a whole The GDP deflator is expected to grow by 3.6 percent for 2017-18, somewhat higher than the CSO's forecast of 2.8 percent. Consequentially, nominal GDP growth is estimated at 10.5 percent, compared with the CSO's 9.5 percent estimate.
Macroeconomic indicators Headline inflation for the first time crossed the RBI's 4 percent target in November, posting a rate of 5.2 percent in December 2017. Underlying inflation has been increasing at a more modest pace, reaching 4.3 percent at end-December The Current Account Deficit has also widened in 2017-18 and is expected to average about 1.5-2 percent of GDP for the year as a whole Meanwhile, Foreign Exchange Reserves have reached a record level of about S432 billion (spot and forward) at end-December 2017, well above prudent norms.
The Clothing Package of 2016 The apparel sector has immense potential to drive economic growth, increase employment, and empower women in India. meen capneia rms Aeaa in However, India has not,or not yet, capitalized on this opening. Instead, countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh are quickly filling the space left by China. Thus, in June 2016, the Cabinet announced a Rs. 6,000 crore package for the apparel sector. The largest component of this package were rehates on state levies (ROSL) to offset indirect taxes levied by the states (the VAT) that were embedded in exports. n saste lenia (oSu