unacademy 7 June 2018 The Hindu Daily News & Editorial Analysis The Hindu(Completely) Indian Express(Very Imp pieces) Delivered by : Sumant Kumar * B.Tech in Computer Science & Engg, NIT Allahabad Have written UPSC Main Exam in 2016 and 2017 with Physics Optional
Sumant Kumar Follow VERIFIED An NIT Allahabad Graduate. Computer Sci&Engg. Have written UPSC Mains 2 times with Physics. Follow me for TheHindu News/Edit+ CA Analysis 40,774 Views in last 30 days N 109,422 Lifetime Views UpVote, Rate, Review. Share 8 Courses 3.9k Followers Following PDFs, Notes, Materials? uman uFacebook ID: AdSumant Telegram Ch: AdSumant unacademy:com/user/AdSumant By Sumant Kumar (Hindi) Mock Test 1 for UPSC Prelims 2018/2019 (Hindi) April 2018: The Hindu Daily News & Editorial Analysis... 147 ratings 38 reviews 72 tatings 21 reviews
RBI raises rates after 4.5 years as crude price surges The six-member monetary policy committee (MPC) of RBI on Wednesday increased the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25% The MPC arrived at the unanimous decision as the outlook for inflation had become o "Crude oil prices have been volatile and this imparts considerable uncertainty to the o Consumer price index-based inflation, or retail inflation, rose to 4.6% in April from o The central bank also observed that inflation expectations were on the rise, evident 'uncertain' following a surge in international crude oil prices. inflation outlook - both on the upside and the downside," the RBI said. 4.28% in March. from its survey of households. This is the first rate hike in four-and-a-half years; the last was in January 2014 Interest rates may go up The RBI increased its inflation projection to 4.8%-4.9% in the first half (H1) of the financial year and 4.7% in the second half, as compared with 4.7-5.1% in H1 and 4.4% for H2.
While the central bank has increased the inflation projection, it has maintained the 'neutral' stance for monetary policy, meaning interest rates can move either way. a neutral stance leaves all options open and other central banks also do the same" The outlook for GDP growth for 2018-19 has been retained at 7.4% as projected in the April policy. Growth to uncertainty Hawkish stanceKey lending Highlights of the RBI's second Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement, 2018-19 on the inflation rate (repo) up by projection 0.25% to 6.25% | retained at 7.4% | outlook for 2018-19 Rate hike is the first in four-Retail inflation and-a half-years lat 4.8-4.9% for - Geopolitical risks, market | volatility, trade April-September protectionism to Reverse repo rate at 6%, bank rate at 6.5% . Volatile crude oil prices add | have impact on domestic growth RESERVE BANK A neutral stance leaves all op- tions open... other central banks OF INDIA also do the same-URJIT PATEL, RBI Governor
DHeadline inflation is a measure of the total inflation within an economy, including commodities such as food and energy prices (e.g., oil and gas), which tend to be much more volatile and prone to inflationary spikes. OCore inflation represents the long run trend in the price level. o In measuring long run inflation, transitory price changes should be excluded o One way of accomplishing this is by excluding items frequently subject to volatile prices, like food and energy.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) is based on the final prices of goods at the retail level. Because of the wide disparities in the consumption baskets for different segment of consumers, India has adopted four CPls 1) CPI (Industrial Workers) 2) CPI (Urban Non- Manual Employees) 3) CPI (Agricultural Labour) 4) CPI (Rural Worker) OIn India, RBI uses CPI (combined) released by CSO for inflation purpose with base year as 2012 The number of items in CPI basket include 448 in rural and 460 in urban
Pre-emptive strike [Ed1] At the end of an unusually long three-day meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India opted for a hike in key interest rates by 25 basis points- the first such increase in four and a half years. This hike, the first during this NDA government's tenure, was approved unanimously by the six-member committee, citing worries about hardening inflation trends and a firming up of growth recovery at home. OGlobal uncertainties affecting emerging markets in particular have played a role as well be it rising tensions over trade wars initiated by the Donald Trump administration or the strengthening dollar or further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve that could strengthen the exodus of global capital from emerging markets such as India. QAlready, between January and May, outflows from foreign portfolio investors have reached their highest level in 10 years, and by June 4, $6.7 billion was pulled out on a net basis from the domestic capital market.
The rupee, along with other emerging market currencies, is hurting too, but RBI Governor Uriit Patel dismissed suggestions that the rate hike was a bid to stem outflows. OThe MPC, he asserted, is driven purely by its inflation management mandate, and there is no contradiction between the rate hike and the committee sticking to its neutral policy stance. Though seasonal food inflation spikes are delayed, input cost pressures have hardened owing to a spurt in global commodity prices, led by fuel. OMoreover, inflationary expectations among producers as well as consumers have Crude oil prices have been the biggest factor at play, rising 12% from $66 a barrel OThe committee said this rise is "sharper, earlier than expected and seems to be gathered steam. when the MPC met in April to $74 a barrel. durable", and termed it a major upside risk to its earlier inflation projections.
Defend the dealA Iran's notification to the UN that IRAN would launch a plan to increase its uranium enrichment capacity illustrates the risks associated with the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal last month. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, reached among the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, besides Germany, the European Union and Iran, in 2015, curtailed Tehran's nuclear programme in return for the lifting of international sanctions DBut after President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the agreement and threatened to impose new sanctions on Iran, its survival is in question. For now, the other signatories say they remain committed to the agreement. OBut almost a month after Mr. Trump announced his decision, they are yet to come up with a framework to salvage the deal The latest Iranian announcement is perhaps aimed at turning the heat up on European powers to come up with guarantees that the deal's benefits will be in place even with U.S. sanctions
According to the deal, Iran can enrich uranium, but under tight restrictions. Olran now says it would open a centre for the production of new centrifuges at its Natanz OTehran could argue that it is not technically violating the agreement as long as it does not O But the move to open a production facility, that too soon after Supreme Leader Ayatollah facility, which could be used for enrichment. produce centrifuges. Ali Khamenei called for preparations to speed up uranium enrichment, could be seen as a provocative step by the remaining parties to the agreement Instead of such posturing, both Iran and Europe would do well to shift their focus to preserving DIf Europe remains politically committed to the agreement as it claims, there have to be Olt is not yet clear whether European companies will make any significant investments in the integrity of the agreement. proper measures to circumvent the impact of U.S. sanctions Iran, or even continue to do business in the country, once U.S. sanctions start targeting them. Earlier, European countries had discussed providing companies that do business with Iran special financing from the European Investment Bank and passing legislation to protect them from U.S.sanctions but no decision has been taken so far.
India's rank marginally improves in peace index Global Peace Index (GPI), released by Australia-based Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) The IEP, world's leading think tank that develops metrics to analyse peace and quantify its economic value, released the 12th edition of the GPI, or measure of global peacefulness, on Wednesday India's rank has marginally improved in "global peacefulness', at a time when there is an overall decline of global peace owing to escalation of violence in West Asia and and North Africa Pakistan's rank too has improved marginally India's GPI rank was 137 out of 163 countries in 2017, when the year 2016 was assessed. India's rank moved up to 136 for 2017. This is in line with the performance of some of the South Asian countries Nepal's rank moved up from 93 to 84, while Sri Lanka's position moved up too, from position 80 to 67. Pakistan's rank moved from 152 to 151 South Asia experienced the largest regional improvement in peacefulness." the report noted. However, the best performer of South Asia, Bhutan, slipped from 13th to 19th position, while Bangladesh' peace index deteriorated sharply. Bangladesh moved from 84th to 93rd position Peace continues to record a "gradual, sustained fall" across the world, the report noted Syria remained the least peaceful country in the world, a position that it had held for the past five years Iceland continues to remain the most peaceful country in the world, a position it has held since 2008.
The RBI Governor will chair the committee. RBI Governor will not enjoy a veto power to overrule the other panel members, but will have a casting vote in case of a tie ODecisions will be taken by majority vote with each member having a vote. If there's a tie between the 'Ayes' and the 'Nays, the RBI governor gets the deciding vote. O The number of times the RBI Governor uses the deciding vote will make arn impression that the committee is not in consensus. So the onus will be on next Governor to find a consensus. Thus, deciding vote is a good way of keeping a check. Members of the MPC will be appointed for a period of 4 years and shall not be eligible for reappointment. As per rules, no member of MPC should have any financial or other interest that prejudicially affects his functions as a member. It will be considered that the panel failed in achieving the inflation target if the lower or the upper range of the target is breached for three consecutive quarters.
If client borrows money from RBI (for short term) then client has to pay this much interest rate to RBl Repo Rate Repo Rate or repurchase rate, is the rate at which RBI lends to banks for short periods. This is done by RBI buying government bonds from banks with an agreement to sell them back at a fixed rate. objective of Repo : to inject liquidity in the system S If RBI wants to make it more expensive for banks to borrow money, it increases the repo rate. S Similarly, if it wants to make it cheaper for banks to borrow money, it reduces the repo rate.
Reverse Repo Rate If client lends money to RBI (for short term) then RBI has to pay this much interest rate to client. Reverse repo Rate O the rate of interest at which the RBI borrows funds from other banks in the short term This is done by RBI selling government bonds/securities to banks with the commitment to buy them back at a future date. Means Collateral G-Secs and G-bonds. The banks use the reverse repo facility to deposit their short-term excess funds with the RBI and earn interest on it. ORBI can reduce liquidity in the banking system by increasing the rate at which it borrows from banks. Hiking the repo and reverse repo rate ends up reducing the liquidity and pushes up interest rates.
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